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La Liga
Referee: Mario Melero Lopez
Espanol
T S T T U
1–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Espanol Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,2
1,8
Scored
0,7
1,7
Conceded
1,5
0,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,5
This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 44%
25%
63%
Points per game
1,1
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 31%
31%
31%
Both score Ø 38%
38%
38%
Average goals
2,1
2,0
Scored
0,8
1,6
Conceded
1,3
0,4
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%
8 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 3
1 Offside 4
18 Free kicks against 22
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Espanol 16. · Ath Madrid 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 16 13 3 0 +35 42
2 Ath Madrid 16 10 6 0 +18 36
3 Valencia 16 10 4 2 +20 34
4 Real Madrid 15 9 4 2 +19 31
5 Sevilla 17 9 2 6 -2 29
6 Villarreal 16 7 3 6 +3 24
7 Eibar 17 7 3 7 -7 24
8 Getafe 17 6 5 6 +6 23
9 Sociedad 17 6 5 6 +2 23
10 Girona 17 6 5 6 -5 23
11 Ath Bilbao 17 5 6 6 -1 21
12 Leganes 16 6 3 7 -2 21
13 Betis 17 6 3 8 -6 21
14 Celta 16 5 3 8 +3 18
15 Levante 17 3 9 5 -7 18
16 Espanol 16 4 5 7 -8 17
17 Alaves 17 5 0 12 -12 15
18 La Coruna 16 4 3 9 -13 15
19 Malaga 17 3 2 12 -18 11
20 Las Palmas 17 3 2 12 -25 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Espanol Ath Madrid
Half-time 0–0
51′
🟨 Saúl Ñíguez
63′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ T. Partey
70′
🔁 K. Gameiro
↦ Fernando Torres
P. Piatti 🔁
↦ Léo Baptistão
72′
73′
🟨 Koke
Javi López 🟨
82′
83′
🟨 Gabi
85′
🔁 A. Fernández
↦ Gabi
Granero 🔁
↦ Sergi Darder
86′
1–0 Sergio García
Granero
88′
89′
🟨 Šime Vrsaljko
Pau López 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Augusto Fernández
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Espanol

4-4-2
1 Pau López G
6 Ó. Duarte D
16 Javi López D
22 Mario Hermoso D
3 Aarón Martín D
18 Javi Fuego M
15 David López D
25 Sergi Darder M
9 Sergio García F
7 Gerard Moreno F
11 Léo Baptistão F
Bench (7)
19 P. Piatti
23 Granero
2 Marc Navarro
5 Naldo
13 Diego López
14 Óscar Melendo
21 Marc Roca

Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
3 Filipe Luis D
2 D. Godín D
16 Š. Vrsaljko D
15 S. Savić D
14 Gabi M
8 Saúl M
6 Koke M
5 T. Partey M
9 Fernando Torres F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (7)
11 Á. Correa
21 K. Gameiro
12 A. Fernández
1 Moyà
10 Y. Carrasco
19 L. Hernández
20 Juanfran

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Mario Melero Lopez · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.