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Championship
Referee: David Coote
Preston
S S U U S
2–3
Full-time
Middlesbrough
T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Middlesbrough
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,3
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
0,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,0
This season — Championship · 25/23 matches
Win Ø 44%
40%
48%
Points per game
1,6
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
40%
48%
Both score Ø 44%
44%
43%
Average goals
2,0
2,4
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
0,9
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

63% Possession 37%
20 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 4
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Preston 7. · Middlesbrough 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolves 25 18 4 3 +27 58
2 Derby 24 14 5 5 +18 47
3 Bristol City 25 13 8 4 +14 47
4 Cardiff 25 14 5 6 +12 47
5 Leeds 25 13 3 9 +9 42
6 Sheffield United 25 13 2 10 +9 41
7 Preston 25 10 10 5 +5 40
8 Middlesbrough 23 11 4 8 +9 37
9 Brentford 25 9 10 6 +7 37
10 Ipswich 25 11 3 11 +3 36
11 Fulham 23 9 8 6 +3 35
12 Aston Villa 22 9 7 6 +7 34
13 Norwich 25 8 7 10 -6 31
14 Nott'm Forest 25 10 1 14 -9 31
15 Millwall 25 7 9 9 +0 30
16 Sheffield Weds 25 7 9 9 -1 30
17 Reading 25 7 7 11 -3 28
18 QPR 25 6 9 10 -9 27
19 Hull 25 5 9 11 -4 24
20 Barnsley 25 5 8 12 -11 23
21 Sunderland 25 4 10 11 -13 22
22 Bolton 25 5 7 13 -19 22
23 Burton Albion 25 5 6 14 -26 21
24 Birmingham 25 5 5 15 -22 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Preston Middlesbrough
13′
Daniel Ayala 0–1
S. Downing
1–1 C. Robinson
T. Barkhuizen
14′
2–1 J. Hugill
D. Johnson
40′
Half-time 2–1
50′
🔁 P. Bamford
↦ A. Guédioura
50′
🔁 R. Gestede
↦ B. Assombalonga
56′
🟨 Cyrus Christie
59′
🔁 R. Shotton
↦ C. Christie
Daniel Johnson 🟨
63′
65′
J. Howson 2–2
Josh Harrop 🟨
67′
72′
🟨 George Friend
73′
Daniel Ayala 2–3
B. Gibson
D. Horgan 🔁
↦ T. Barkhuizen
78′
P. Gallagher 🔁
↦ D. Johnson
78′
89′
🟨 Rudy Gestede
90′
🟨 Darren Randolph
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Preston

4-2-3-1
22 C. Maxwell G
23 P. Huntington D
15 C. Woods D
5 T. Clarke D
20 B. Davies D
29 T. Barkhuizen M
11 D. Johnson M
4 B. Pearson M
10 J. Harrop M
37 C. Robinson M
9 J. Hugill F
Bench (7)
7 D. Horgan
12 P. Gallagher
1 D. Rudd
3 G. Cunningham
8 A. Browne
19 J. Welsh
25 K. O'Connor

Coach: A. Neil

Middlesbrough

4-3-3
25 D. Randolph G
3 G. Friend D
4 Daniel Ayala D
22 C. Christie D
6 B. Gibson D
19 S. Downing F
7 G. Leadbitter M
16 J. Howson M
17 A. Guédioura M
37 Adama Traoré F
9 B. Assombalonga F
Bench (7)
11 P. Bamford
39 R. Gestede
5 R. Shotton
1 D. Konstantopoulos
18 A. Fletcher
21 M. Johnson
30 L. Baker

Coach: T. Pulis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

David Coote · 99 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.