Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Tottenham
West Brom
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Leicester
|
35 | 22 | 10 | 3 | +30 | 76 |
| 2 |
Tottenham
|
34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | +39 | 68 |
| 3 |
Man City
|
35 | 19 | 7 | 9 | +32 | 64 |
| 4 |
Arsenal
|
35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | +24 | 64 |
| 5 |
Man United
|
34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | +12 | 59 |
| 6 |
West Ham
|
34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | +14 | 56 |
| 7 |
Liverpool
|
34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | +13 | 55 |
| 8 |
Southampton
|
35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | +12 | 54 |
| 9 |
Chelsea
|
34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +7 | 47 |
| 10 |
Stoke
|
35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | -14 | 47 |
| 11 |
Everton
|
34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | +5 | 41 |
| 12 |
Watford
|
34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 41 |
| 13 |
Bournemouth
|
35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | -19 | 41 |
| 14 |
West Brom
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -11 | 40 |
| 15 |
Swansea
|
35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 40 |
| 16 |
Crystal Palace
|
35 | 10 | 9 | 16 | -9 | 39 |
| 17 |
Sunderland
|
34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -18 | 31 |
| 18 |
Norwich
|
34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 |
Newcastle
|
35 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -26 | 30 |
| 20 |
Aston Villa
|
35 | 3 | 7 | 25 | -44 | 16 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
K. Walker
D
E. Dier
M
H. Kane
F
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Stoke
Tottenham
Tottenham
Man United
Liverpool
Tottenham
Tottenham
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Mike Jones · 74 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.