Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Stabaek
Valerenga
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rosenborg
|
17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | +29 | 39 |
| 2 |
Valerenga
|
17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | +12 | 33 |
| 3 |
Stabaek
|
17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | +9 | 32 |
| 4 |
Viking
|
18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | +11 | 31 |
| 5 |
Stromsgodset
|
16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 27 |
| 6 |
Molde
|
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +16 | 25 |
| 7 |
Odd
|
17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 23 |
| 9 |
Lillestrom
|
17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | +0 | 22 |
| 10 |
Haugesund
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -10 | 21 |
| 11 |
Start
|
17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 |
Sarpsborg 08
|
17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 13 |
Aalesund
|
17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 |
Tromso
|
17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 |
Mjondalen
|
17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -13 | 16 |
| 16 |
Sandefjord
|
17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | -23 | 9 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Haugesund
Stabaek
Stabaek
Sarpsborg 08
Start
Stabaek
Stabaek
Stromsgodset
Aalesund
Stabaek
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.