Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Man City
West Ham
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
|
26 | 25 | 1 | 0 | +46 | 76 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | +36 | 51 |
| 3 |
Leicester
|
26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | +28 | 50 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 |
Tottenham
|
26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | +9 | 40 |
| 6 |
Sheffield United
|
26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | +4 | 39 |
| 7 |
Man United
|
26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | +9 | 38 |
| 8 |
Wolves
|
26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | +3 | 36 |
| 9 |
Everton
|
26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 |
Arsenal
|
26 | 7 | 13 | 6 | +2 | 34 |
| 11 |
Burnley
|
26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 |
Southampton
|
26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -16 | 31 |
| 13 |
Newcastle
|
26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 |
Crystal Palace
|
26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 |
Brighton
|
26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 16 |
Bournemouth
|
26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -14 | 26 |
| 17 |
Aston Villa
|
26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -16 | 25 |
| 18 |
West Ham
|
25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -13 | 24 |
| 19 |
Watford
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -16 | 24 |
| 20 |
Norwich
|
26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -24 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Ederson Moraes
G
K. Walker
D
B. Mendy
D
A. Laporte
D
K. De Bruyne
M
Bernardo Silva
F
Rodri
M
Gabriel Jesus
F
Coach: Guardiola
A. Masuaku
D
I. Diop
D
M. Antonio
F
D. Rice
M
Coach: D. Moyes
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Tottenham
Man City
Sheffield United
Man City
Man City
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Man City
Man City
Everton
Kevin Friend · 127 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.