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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Farense

U T U S T

2–1

Full-time

Maritimo

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

13%

25%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

38%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%

4 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Farense 18. · Maritimo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+16	23
2	Benfica	9	7	0	2	+10	21
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Sp Braga	9	6	0	3	+5	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	1	3	+0	16
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+1	13
8	Belenenses	9	2	5	2	-1	11
9	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-2	11
10	Nacional	9	2	4	3	-2	10
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-5	10
12	Gil Vicente	9	2	3	4	-2	9
13	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
14	Boavista	9	1	5	3	-5	8
15	Tondela	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-4	7
17	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-6	7
18	Farense	8	1	2	5	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
2	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Tondela	5	2	1	2	-3	7
9	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
11	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
12	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Farense	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Guimaraes	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Santa Clara	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Boavista	5	0	4	1	-2	4
12	Famalicao	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.