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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Sp Braga

S S T U S

2–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,2

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

33%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

42%

25%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

20 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 11. · Rio Ave 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+26	36
2	Porto	12	10	1	1	+21	31
3	Famalicao	12	7	3	2	+6	24
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+4	20
5	Guimaraes	13	4	6	3	+5	18
6	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Boavista	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Gil Vicente	13	4	5	4	-1	17
9	Tondela	13	4	4	5	-1	16
10	Moreirense	13	3	6	4	-1	15
11	Sp Braga	12	4	3	5	-2	15
12	Santa Clara	13	3	5	5	-4	14
13	Belenenses	12	4	2	6	-9	14
14	Setubal	12	2	7	3	-4	13
15	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	7	3	-4	13
16	Portimonense	13	2	6	5	-7	12
17	Maritimo	13	2	6	5	-9	12
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	2	7	-10	8
19	Aves	12	1	0	11	-15	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+17	18
3	Gil Vicente	8	3	5	0	+5	14
4	Famalicao	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+8	11
6	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Setubal	7	2	5	0	+2	11
9	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	5	0	+2	11
10	Sp Lisbon	5	3	0	2	+3	9
11	Boavista	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+0	8
14	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Belenenses	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Portimonense	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-4	4
19	Aves	5	1	0	4	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Porto	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Tondela	7	3	3	1	+3	12
4	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Famalicao	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	9
7	Belenenses	7	2	2	3	-6	8
8	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Sp Braga	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Guimaraes	7	1	4	2	-3	7
11	Portimonense	7	1	4	2	-4	7
12	Maritimo	7	1	3	3	-7	6
13	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Moreirense	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Gil Vicente	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1
19	Aves	7	0	0	7	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.