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DBU Pokalen

Referee: S Kilden

tst Fodbold

3–2

Full-time

Næsby

S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

tst Fodbold Næsby

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

4,7

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

This season — DBU Pokalen · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

6,0

Scored

2,0

5,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match tst Fodbold 50. · Næsby 25. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kolding IF	2	2	0	0	+22	6
2	B 93	2	2	0	0	+21	6
3	Fredericia	2	2	0	0	+15	6
4	Aalborg	2	2	0	0	+14	6
5	Aarhus Fremad	2	2	0	0	+12	6
6	FA 2000	2	2	0	0	+12	6
7	Esbjerg	2	2	0	0	+8	6
8	Naestved	2	2	0	0	+8	6
9	FC Helsingor	2	2	0	0	+7	6
10	Ishøj	2	2	0	0	+7	6
11	Viby	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Hobro	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Lyseng	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	HB Koge	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Vanløse	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Thisted FC	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Nykobing FC	2	2	0	0	+3	6
18	AB Copenhagen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	HIK	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Midtjylland	1	1	0	0	+13	3
21	Hvidovre IF	1	1	0	0	+8	3
22	Hillerød	2	1	0	1	+5	3
23	Odense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
24	Middelfart	2	1	0	1	+4	3
25	Næsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
26	Kolding B	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Lyngby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	SfB-Oure	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Skjold Sæby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Ringsted	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Gørslev	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Silkeborg KFUM	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Vejle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	VSK Århus	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Sonderjyske	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	B 1908	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	AB Tårnby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	VRI	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Tune	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Skjold Birkerød	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Skive	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Brønshøj	2	1	0	1	-2	3
43	Ringkøbing	2	1	0	1	-3	3
44	Taastrup	2	1	0	1	-4	3
45	Dalum	2	1	0	1	-5	3
46	Bagsværd	2	1	0	1	-5	3
47	Søften	2	1	0	1	-6	3
48	Aabenraa	2	1	0	1	-12	3
49	B 1909	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	tst Fodbold	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Vejgaard B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Fjordager	2	0	1	1	-8	1
53	Brabrand	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Glostrup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Amager FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Gug	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Horsens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Fremad Amager	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vendsyssel FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Greve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	LSF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Tåsinge	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Nibe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Odder	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Frem	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Kjellerup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	ASA Aarhus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Otterup	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	OKS	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	NB Bornholm	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Tårnby FF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Jetsmark	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Allerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	B 1960	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Køge Union	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Holstebro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	KFUM Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Bispebjerg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Aarhus 1900	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Morud/Veflinge	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Dragør	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Frem Sakskøbing	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Varde	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Frederiksholm Sydhavnen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
86	Nørresundby	1	0	0	1	-5	0
87	Højslev IF	1	0	0	1	-5	0
88	KFUM Odense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
89	Vallensbæk	1	0	0	1	-6	0
90	BSF	1	0	0	1	-7	0
91	FC Nakskov	1	0	0	1	-7	0
92	KRFK	1	0	0	1	-7	0
93	Egen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
94	Bredballe	1	0	0	1	-8	0
95	LUIF	1	0	0	1	-16	0
96	Avrasya	1	0	0	1	-18	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Viby	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Kolding B	2	1	0	1	+2	3
3	Lyseng	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Ringsted	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Thisted FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Gørslev	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	HIK	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Silkeborg KFUM	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	B 1908	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Tune	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Ringkøbing	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Taastrup	2	1	0	1	-4	3
13	Dalum	2	1	0	1	-5	3
14	Søften	2	1	0	1	-6	3
15	B 1909	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	tst Fodbold	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	SfB-Oure	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Amager FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Horsens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Greve	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	LSF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Tåsinge	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Nibe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Sonderjyske	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Odder	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Frem	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	ASA Aarhus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Otterup	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Skive	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	NB Bornholm	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Tårnby FF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Jetsmark	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Hillerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Allerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Skjold Birkerød	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Køge Union	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	AB Tårnby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Skjold Sæby	1	0	0	1	-3	0
39	KFUM Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-3	0
40	Aarhus 1900	1	0	0	1	-3	0
41	Morud/Veflinge	1	0	0	1	-4	0
42	Dragør	1	0	0	1	-4	0
43	Frederiksholm Sydhavnen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
44	Nørresundby	1	0	0	1	-5	0
45	Højslev IF	1	0	0	1	-5	0
46	Brønshøj	1	0	0	1	-5	0
47	VRI	1	0	0	1	-6	0
48	KFUM Odense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
49	Vallensbæk	1	0	0	1	-6	0
50	BSF	1	0	0	1	-7	0
51	FC Nakskov	1	0	0	1	-7	0
52	KRFK	1	0	0	1	-7	0
53	Bagsværd	1	0	0	1	-7	0
54	Fjordager	1	0	0	1	-8	0
55	Egen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
56	Bredballe	1	0	0	1	-8	0
57	Aabenraa	1	0	0	1	-13	0
58	LUIF	1	0	0	1	-16	0
59	Avrasya	1	0	0	1	-18	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kolding IF	2	2	0	0	+22	6
2	B 93	2	2	0	0	+21	6
3	Fredericia	2	2	0	0	+15	6
4	Aalborg	2	2	0	0	+14	6
5	Aarhus Fremad	2	2	0	0	+12	6
6	FA 2000	2	2	0	0	+12	6
7	Esbjerg	2	2	0	0	+8	6
8	Naestved	2	2	0	0	+8	6
9	FC Helsingor	2	2	0	0	+7	6
10	Ishøj	2	2	0	0	+7	6
11	Hobro	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	HB Koge	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Vanløse	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Nykobing FC	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	AB Copenhagen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Midtjylland	1	1	0	0	+13	3
17	Hvidovre IF	1	1	0	0	+8	3
18	Hillerød	1	1	0	0	+7	3
19	VRI	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Odense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
21	Middelfart	2	1	0	1	+4	3
22	Næsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Skjold Sæby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
24	Brønshøj	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Lyseng	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	SfB-Oure	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Thisted FC	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Bagsværd	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Lyngby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	AB Tårnby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Skjold Birkerød	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sonderjyske	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	HIK	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Aabenraa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Vejle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Skive	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	VSK Århus	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Fjordager	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Vejgaard B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Brabrand	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Glostrup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Gug	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Fremad Amager	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Vendsyssel FF	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Kjellerup	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Roskilde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	OKS	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	B 1960	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Holstebro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Bispebjerg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Frem Sakskøbing	1	0	0	1	-4	0
52	Varde	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

tst Fodbold Næsby

5′

⚽ S. Nørbygaard 1–0

own goal

2–0 M. Gernow ⚽

22′

Half-time 2–0

T. Jønsson 🔁

↦ F. Hedevang Olesen

63′

68′

🔁 A. Molberg

↦ J. Mikkelsen

68′

🔁 M. Stangerup

↦ G. Vinter

J. Erngaard 🔁

↦ J. Emdal

80′

85′

🟨 H. Kalle

86′

🔁 M. Lund

↦ M. Uhd

86′

🔁 P. Stoustrup

↦ K. Hvidtfeldt

C. Minke 🔁

↦ P. Baj Høgh

90′

J. Skriver 🟨

92′

105′

🔁 K. Nyegaard

↦ O. Gaarn

P. Hansen 🔁

↦ J. Nielsen

112′

🔁 C. Floyd

↦ L. Larsen

112′

⚽ R. Nissen 2–1

3–1 J. Erngaard ⚽

116′

M. Gernow 🟨

117′

120′

🟨 M. Lund

4–1 J. Erngaard ⚽

121′

Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

tst Fodbold

3 P. Baj Høgh

4 T. Buchhave

99 J. Emdal

11 J. Andersen

14 J. Dam Skriver

88 S. Nørbygaard

22 J. Nielsen

77 F. Hedevang Olesen

1 T. Bach

9 M. Gernow

Bench (7)

19 T. Jønsson

21 J. Erngaard

30 C. Minke

8 P. Hansen

7 R. Hald

42 M. Madsen

15 K. Kring

Coach: C. Frederiksen

Næsby

1 P. Gejl

16 J. Skytte

14 K. Jørgensen

5 J. Mikkelsen

3 O. Gaarn

8 L. Larsen

4 K. Petersen

20 K. Hvidtfeldt

9 R. Nissen

10 M. Uhd

22 G. Vinter

Bench (8)

2 A. Molberg

6 M. Stangerup

7 M. Lund

11 P. Stoustrup

19 K. Nyegaard

12 C. Floyd

26 M. Ladefoged

21 B. Breitenstein

Coach: C. Madsen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

9. Aug POK 3 years ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

tst Fodbold

Næsby

Odds comparison

Recent matches