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Taça de Portugal

União Micaelense

1–0

Full-time

Alcochetense

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+10	3
3	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
5	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Academica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Alqueidão da Serra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Peniche	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Portosantense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
63	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
64	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
65	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
66	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+10	3
3	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Academica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Alqueidão da Serra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Peniche	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Portosantense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
33	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
29	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
30	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
31	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
32	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
33	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

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Over/under goals

O1,5

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U1,5 ✓

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O2,5

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U2,5 ✓

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O3,5

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U3,5 ✓

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Both teams to score

BLS ja

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BLS nei ✓

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Recent matches

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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Odds comparison

Recent matches