Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Lugo
Cartagena
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Espanol
|
41 | 24 | 10 | 7 | +44 | 82 |
| 2 |
Mallorca
|
41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | +26 | 81 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | +18 | 67 |
| 4 |
Leganes
|
40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | +13 | 67 |
| 5 |
Girona
|
40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | +10 | 67 |
| 6 |
Vallecano
|
40 | 18 | 10 | 12 | +11 | 64 |
| 7 |
Sp Gijon
|
40 | 17 | 13 | 10 | +11 | 64 |
| 8 |
Ponferradina
|
40 | 15 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 56 |
| 9 |
Mirandes
|
41 | 14 | 12 | 15 | -1 | 54 |
| 10 |
Tenerife
|
41 | 13 | 12 | 16 | +0 | 51 |
| 11 |
Oviedo
|
41 | 11 | 18 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 12 |
Fuenlabrada
|
40 | 11 | 17 | 12 | -2 | 50 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
40 | 12 | 14 | 14 | -9 | 50 |
| 14 |
Malaga
|
40 | 13 | 11 | 16 | -12 | 50 |
| 15 |
Zaragoza
|
41 | 12 | 12 | 17 | -4 | 48 |
| 16 |
Cartagena
|
40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |
Alcorcon
|
40 | 12 | 10 | 18 | -7 | 46 |
| 18 | Logrones | 40 | 11 | 11 | 18 | -23 | 44 |
| 19 |
Castellon
|
40 | 11 | 8 | 21 | -14 | 41 |
| 20 |
Lugo
|
40 | 9 | 14 | 17 | -17 | 41 |
| 21 |
Sabadell
|
40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | -12 | 40 |
| 22 |
Albacete
|
40 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -21 | 38 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Albacete
Lugo
Lugo
Mirandes
Sp Gijon
Lugo
Lugo
Zaragoza
Ponferradina
Lugo
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.