Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
26 | 19 | 6 | 1 | +34 | 63 |
| 2 |
Frosinone
|
26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | +12 | 46 |
| 3 |
Crotone
|
26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | +11 | 43 |
| 4 |
Spezia
|
26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | +8 | 41 |
| 5 |
Cittadella
|
26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | +4 | 40 |
| 6 |
Salernitana
|
26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +3 | 39 |
| 7 | Pordenone | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +0 | 39 |
| 8 |
Chievo
|
26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | +5 | 37 |
| 9 |
Empoli
|
26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 |
Pescara
|
26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | +0 | 35 |
| 11 |
Virtus Entella
|
26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 |
Pisa
|
26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 33 |
| 13 |
Perugia
|
26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -7 | 33 |
| 14 |
Juve Stabia
|
26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -9 | 33 |
| 15 |
Venezia
|
26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | -3 | 32 |
| 16 |
Ascoli
|
25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -2 | 31 |
| 17 |
Cremonese
|
25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -5 | 27 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 24 |
| 19 | Trapani | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -24 | 21 |
| 20 | Livorno | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -21 | 17 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Juve Stabia
Spezia
Cremonese
Salernitana
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.