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Championship

Referee: Lee Mason

Birmingham

S U

1–1

Full-time

Derby

U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,5

1,3

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,5

1,3

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

14 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 9. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Hull	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Milton Keynes Dons	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+3	5
6	Charlton	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Preston	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	QPR	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Leeds	3	0	3	0	+0	3
16	Derby	3	0	3	0	+0	3
17	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Reading	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	2
21	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-4	1
23	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	1
24	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Charlton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Bolton	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Birmingham Derby

1–0 S. Gleeson ⚽

45′

Half-time 1–1

61′

⚽ J. Russell 1–1

T. Ince

64′

🔁 A. Weimann

↦ D. Bent

66′

🟨 Chris Martin

A. Shinnie 🔁

↦ Jon Toral

67′

J. Maghoma 🔁

↦ D. Cotterill

68′

81′

🟨 Richard Keogh

82′

🔁 R. Shotton

↦ C. Christie

Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Birmingham

29 T. Kuszczak G

23 J. Spector

3 J. Grounds D

31 P. Caddis D

28 M. Morrison D

11 D. Cotterill M

8 S. Gleeson M

6 M. Kieftenbeld M

20 Jon Toral M

D. Gray M

9 C. Donaldson F

Bench (7)

22 A. Shinnie

19 J. Maghoma

1 A. Legzdins

26 D. Davis

2 N. Eardley

4 P. Robinson

10 W. Thomas

Derby

17 S. Carson G

12 C. Baird D

14 J. Shackell D

6 R. Keogh D

C. Forsyth D

C. Christie D

34 G. Thorne M

23 T. Ince M

10 D. Bent F

11 J. Russell F

9 C. Martin F

Bench (7)

24 A. Weimann

32 R. Shotton

16 A. Pearce

27 Iván Calero

7 S. Dawkins

37 S. Warnock

1 L. Grant

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

U ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

15. Aug CH 11 years ago

8. Aug CH 11 years ago

Referee

Lee Mason · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

3,2 / match

Below average

⚽ Free kicks

17,0 / match

Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Match report

Line-ups

Birmingham

Derby

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee