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Champions League
Referee: S Gözübüyük
Porto
S S U T S
1–0
Full-time
Arsenal
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,0
4,2
Scored
2,3
3,5
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+2,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
2,5
2,7
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,17 xG 0,49
35% Possession 65%
8 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 0
2 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 10
14 Free kicks against 22
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Porto Arsenal
2′
🟨 Declan Rice
Half-time 0–0
Francisco Conceição 🟨
52′
57′
🟨 Jakub Kiwior
60′
🟨 Kai Havertz
Nicolás González 🟨
62′
74′
🔁 Jorginho
↦ L. Trossard
Iván Jaime 🔁
↦ Nico González
81′
Toni Martínez 🔁
↦ Evanilson
85′
Gonçalo Borges 🔁
↦ Francisco Conceição
86′
S. Eustáquio 🔁
↦ Wendell
90′
1–0 Galeno ⚽
Otávio
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Porto

4-2-3-1
99 Diogo Costa G
23 João Mário D
3 Pepe D
31 Otávio D
18 Wendell D
22 A. Varela M
16 Nico González M
10 Francisco Conceição M
11 Pepê Aquino M
13 Galeno M
30 Evanilson F
Bench (12)
17 Iván Jaime
29 Toni Martínez
70 Gonçalo Borges
6 S. Eustáquio
20 André Franco
14 Cláudio Ramos
8 M. Grujić
2 Fábio Cardoso
19 D. Namaso
15 J. Sánchez
97 Zé Pedro
28 Romário Baró

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
15 J. Kiwior D
8 M. Ødegaard M
41 D. Rice M
29 K. Havertz M
7 B. Saka F
19 L. Trossard F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (12)
20 Jorginho
14 E. Nketiah
24 R. Nelson
79 A. Heaven
21 Fábio Vieira
25 Mohamed Elneny
17 Cédric Soares
1 A. Ramsdale
73 J. Sweet
10 E. Smith Rowe
31 K. Hein
63 E. Nwaneri

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Gözübüyük · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.